Tidsfördröjningar i bostadsprisernas respons på makroekonomiska förändringar: En analys av påverkansfaktorer mellan 2005-2023
2025 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
The Swedish housing market, known for its volatility and uncertainty, plays a crucial economic role. This study examines two key questions: Which macroeconomic factors influence property prices, and how long does it take for these factors to have an effect?Using a quantitative approach, the study analyzes the time-lagged impact of selected macroeconomic variables on Swedish housing prices from 2005 to 2023. Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) models were applied to quarterly data on changes in property prices, inflation, lending rate, and money supply. Also, the study included three control variables GDP, Granted by building permit and Disposable income. Unit root tests, AIC-based lag selection, and Cholesky decomposition were used to ensure robust results and capture structural shocks. Findings show that property prices are strongly influenced by their own past values. Inflation has a significant impact of two to three quarters. The lending rate shows a significant effect, occurring after one to three quarters. Money supply lacks consistent direct significance but suggestsan indirect delayed effect approximately three to four quarters through interactions with other variables. The study concludes that inflation and lending rates have significant, time-lagged effects on Swedish housing prices. While the influence of money supply is more indirect, it still contributes to price developments over longer periods.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 39
Keywords [en]
Housing market, Sweden, property prices
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-23758Local ID: EXC513OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-23758DiVA, id: diva2:1985275
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
Mäklarekonomprogrammet, fastighet och finans
Supervisors
Examiners
2025-08-122025-07-232025-09-30Bibliographically approved