Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Ekonometrisk test på Fibonaccirekylens prediktiva kraft på prisrörelser inom aktiemarknaden
University West, School of Business, Economics and IT.
University West, School of Business, Economics and IT.
2025 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This paper empirically investigates the predictive power of Fibonacci retracement levels as indicators of support and resistance over the period 2015-03-31 to 2025-03-31. We construct a continuous Fibonacci indicator by algorithmically mapping local price ex-trema using kernel regression and detection of local extremas, normalizing the price po-sition relative to the {0 %, 38.2 %, 50 %, 61.8 %, 100 %} retracement levels, and smooth-ing with an exponential moving average. First, we estimate next-day log returns on lagged Fibonacci values using OLS regressions with Newey–West–adjusted standard errors. Second, we model conditional volatility in a GARCH(1,1) framework with the squared Fibonacci indicator as an exogenous term. Critical values are calibrated via block-boot-strap to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity under the null of random walk. Results show a consistently negative and significant relationship between proximity to support levels and subsequent returns, and a positive, significant effect on volatility con-traction at Fibonacci levels. These findings support the use of Fibonacci retracements in technical analysis while acknowledging variation across markets.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 35
Keywords [en]
Fibonacci retracement, support, resistance, return, volatility
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-23756Local ID: EXC513OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-23756DiVA, id: diva2:1985267
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
Mäklarekonomprogrammet, fastighet och finans
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2025-08-12 Created: 2025-07-23 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

By organisation
School of Business, Economics and IT
Economics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 28 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf