Ekonometrisk test på Fibonaccirekylens prediktiva kraft på prisrörelser inom aktiemarknaden
2025 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
This paper empirically investigates the predictive power of Fibonacci retracement levels as indicators of support and resistance over the period 2015-03-31 to 2025-03-31. We construct a continuous Fibonacci indicator by algorithmically mapping local price ex-trema using kernel regression and detection of local extremas, normalizing the price po-sition relative to the {0 %, 38.2 %, 50 %, 61.8 %, 100 %} retracement levels, and smooth-ing with an exponential moving average. First, we estimate next-day log returns on lagged Fibonacci values using OLS regressions with Newey–West–adjusted standard errors. Second, we model conditional volatility in a GARCH(1,1) framework with the squared Fibonacci indicator as an exogenous term. Critical values are calibrated via block-boot-strap to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity under the null of random walk. Results show a consistently negative and significant relationship between proximity to support levels and subsequent returns, and a positive, significant effect on volatility con-traction at Fibonacci levels. These findings support the use of Fibonacci retracements in technical analysis while acknowledging variation across markets.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 35
Keywords [en]
Fibonacci retracement, support, resistance, return, volatility
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-23756Local ID: EXC513OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-23756DiVA, id: diva2:1985267
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
Mäklarekonomprogrammet, fastighet och finans
Supervisors
Examiners
2025-08-122025-07-232025-09-30Bibliographically approved