Impact of Currency Devaluation on Inflation and Economic Growth in West African Economies: A Comparative Analysis of Ghana and Nigeria
2025 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
Using Nigeria and Ghana as case studies, this thesis looks at how currency devaluation affects inflation and economic growth in West African countries. Using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models and annual time series data from 1990 to 2023, the study looks at both short- and long-term impacts of exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic stability. Three theoretical frameworks form the basis of the study: the elasticity approach, the monetary approach, and structuralist theory. The empirical results show different effects in the two countries. While devaluation has little direct impact on inflation or GDP, interest rate policy mostly drives inflation in Nigeria. By contrast, Ghana shows a significant inflationary reaction to devaluation of the currency; foreign reserves are crucial in controlling inflation and helping GDP growth. Error correction terms suggest that both economies relatively quickly adjust towards equilibrium, although Ghana shows a quicker and more consistent adjustment mechanism. These findings imply that macroeconomic stability or growth is not guaranteed by currency devaluation by itself. Outcomes, rather, much rely on structural circumstances, institutional systems, and complementary policy actions. The thesis finds that although devaluation can be a short-term adjustment tool, its impact in West Africa is still rather constrained without more structural changes.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 64
Keywords [en]
Currency Devaluation, Inflation, Economic Growth, Macroeconomic Stability, ARDL Model, West Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Exchange Rate, Foreign Reserves, Structural Reforms
National Category
Economics Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-23684Local ID: EXC513OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-23684DiVA, id: diva2:1979119
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
Mäklarekonomprogrammet, fastighet och finans
Supervisors
Examiners
2025-07-222025-06-302025-09-30Bibliographically approved