Småhuspriser, bolåneränta och arbetslöshet: En kvantitativ studie över hur småhuspriserna i Västra Götalands län påverkas av bolåneränta och arbetslöshet
2025 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
This thesis studies how house prices in the Swedish region Västra Götaland have been affected by changes in mortgage interest rates and unemployment during the period 2005 to 2023. The study uses quarterly data from Statistiska Centralbyrå (SCB) and applies econometric methods such as correlation analysis, Dickey-Fuller test, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model, and Granger causality through a VAR model. The thesis is based on the economic model of supply and demand, consumption theory, and the Phillips curve. The results show that unemployment has a significant effect on house prices in both the short and long run, while the nominal mortgage interest rate was not statistically significant. When compared with earlier studies, the importance of unemployment is confirmed, but there are differences in the effect of mortgage interest rates. One possible reason is that this study uses nominal mortgage interest rates, not real. The thesis also suggests more research about how housing demand is affected, measured by the number of sales, because most research today focuses on price changes.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 35
Keywords [en]
Västra Götaland, house prices, ADL-model, VAR-model
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-23666Local ID: EXC513OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-23666DiVA, id: diva2:1978499
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
Mäklarekonomprogrammet, fastighet och finans
Supervisors
Examiners
2025-07-222025-06-272025-09-30Bibliographically approved