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Tariffs, economic growth and financial market reactions: Insight on the trade war 2018-
University West, School of Business, Economics and IT.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This thesis examines the impact of tariffs on short-term market fluctuations and medium term economic growth of the USA compared to the financial markets reaction. During Trump’s first presidency in 2017 the use of economic trade barriers ran rampant to increase outside sentiment for American trade. Mainly, the US announced tariffs on basically the entire world at one point including its own trade partners but also specifically targeted China and its large trade deficit to attempt lowering dependence on foreign trade and heighten domestic production. These series of events became a trade war between the two powers continuously throwing retaliatory tariffs at each other targeting various industries of interest. This analysis uses returns of the stock market in the USA, some data from the Chinese stock market and individual returns of specific companies affected to gain an understanding of short term reactions by investors in an event window of 4-5 days to capture initial changes in public perception during times of economic uncertainty. Further analysis of medium term time periods includes real GDP in the US and the financial market differences to examine both specific tariff implications and overall growth during the targeted period ~2017-2021. Results in this area suggest that in a monthly manner, tariff use was not actually statistically significant but in a yearly analysis it did provide changes in operation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 23
Keywords [en]
Economic growth, tariffs, impact
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-23657Local ID: EXC513OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-23657DiVA, id: diva2:1978305
Subject / course
Business administration
Educational program
Mäklarekonomprogrammet, fastighet och finans
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2025-07-22 Created: 2025-06-27 Last updated: 2025-09-30Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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Language
  • de-DE
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  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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