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  • 1.
    Mac Giolla, Erik
    et al.
    University West, Department of Social and Behavioural Studies, Division of Psychology, Pedagogy and Sociology.
    Ly, Alexander
    Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
    What to do with all these Bayes factors: How to make Bayesian reports in deception research more informative2019In: Legal and Criminological Psychology, ISSN 1355-3259, E-ISSN 2044-8333Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Bayes factors quantify the evidence in support of the null (absence of an effect) or the alternative hypothesis (presence of an effect). Based on commonly used cut-offs, Bayes factors between 1/3 and 3 are interpreted as evidentially weak, and one typically concludes there is an absence of evidence. In this commentary on Warmelink, Subramanian, Tkacheva, and McLatchie (Legal Criminol Psychol 24, 2019, 258), we discuss how a Bayesian report can be made more informative. Firstly, this implies a departure from the labels provided by commonly used cut-offs when reporting Bayes factors. Instead, we encourage researchers to report the value of the Bayes factors, or to convert these values into nominal support for the hypotheses. Secondly, researchers can provide recommendations to design follow-up studies by examining the posterior distribution of the magnitude of the effect size. Lastly, we show how individual Bayes factors can be evaluated in the context of large-scale meta-analyses. © 2019 British Psychological Society

  • 2.
    Mac Giolla, Erik
    et al.
    University West, Department of Social and Behavioural Studies, Division of Psychology, Pedagogy and Sociology. University of Gothenburg, Department of Psychology, Sweden.
    Ly, Alexander
    University of Amsterdam, Psychological Methods, The Netherlands; Machine Learning Group, Centrum Wiskunde &Informatica, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
    What to do with all these Bayes factors: How to make Bayesian reports in deception research more informative2020In: Legal and Criminological Psychology, ISSN 1355-3259, E-ISSN 2044-8333Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Bayes factors quantify the evidence in support of the null (absence of an effect) or the alternative hypothesis (presence of an effect). Based on commonly used cut-offs, Bayes factors between 1/3 and 3 are interpreted as evidentially weak, and one typically concludes there is an absence of evidence. In this commentary on Warmelink, Subramanian, Tkacheva, and McLatchie (Legal Criminol Psychol 24, 2019, 258), we discuss how a Bayesian report can be made more informative. Firstly, this implies a departure from the labels provided by commonly used cut-offs when reporting Bayes factors. Instead, we encourage researchers to report the value of the Bayes factors, or to convert these values into nominal support for the hypotheses. Secondly, researchers can provide recommendations to design follow-up studies by examining the posterior distribution of the magnitude of the effect size. Lastly, we show how individual Bayes factors can be evaluated in the context of large-scale meta-analyses.

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