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The Underlying factors of Consumer Sentiment: How much is Sweden affected by the US sentiment?
University West, Department of Economics and IT, Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics.
University West, Department of Economics and IT, Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics.
2016 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Financial stress is often defined as the issues of trust towards financial institutions. According to the established doctrine, financial stress is able to cause a decline in economic activity and is proven to have a Granger causal relationship with consumption. This study is aiming to examine whether the sentiment indexes of a larger nation is a dependent factor to a change in the sentiment indexes of a smaller nation, and thus Granger-causing a change in consumption in the smaller nation. In finding a regressive pattern between the sentiment indexes, we are going to assume the consumer confidence index of Sweden as a dependent variable of the consumer sentiment index of the US along with other determinant factors. This can give us enough information to measure the proportion of Sweden's consumer stress caused by the US consumer stress. Our results have proven that the US sentiment has some explanatory power over the Swedish sentiment, even though other factors such as the variations of stock market prices are of greater importance. Other underlying factors such as the consumer price index may be useful for other countries if it has a high volatility. However, it was found not to be significant for Sweden.

Abstract [sv]

Finansiell stress definieras ofta som förtroendeproblem gentemot finansiella institutioner. Enligt den etablerade doktrinen kan finansiell stress orsaka en nedgång i den finansiella aktiviteten och har visat sig ha ett (Granger) orsakssamband med konsumtion. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka om förtroendeindexet för en inflytelserik nation är en beroende faktor för förtroendeindexet i en mindre nation, och därmed Granger-orsakar en förändring av konsumtionen i en mindre nation. För att hitta ett regressivt samband mellan förtroendeindexen kommer vi att använda konsumentförtroendet av Sverige som en beroende variabel av konsumentförtroendet i USA, tillsammans med andra bestämmande faktorer av konsumentstress. Detta kan ge oss tillräckligt med information för att mäta hur stor andel av Sveriges konsumentstress som orsakas av USAs konsumentstress. Vårt resultat har bevisat att USAs konsumentförtroende har viss förklarande makt över det svenska förtroendeindexet, trots att andra faktorer så som variationerna i börspriser är av större betydelse. Andra underliggande faktorer så som konsumentprisindex kan vara till nytta för andra länder ifall den har en hög volatilitet. Men den visade sig vara icke-signifikant för Sverige.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 35 p.
Keyword [en]
Consumer Sentiment, Global sentiment, Financial stress, Consumer confidence index (CCI), Consumer sentiment index (CSI)
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-9698Local ID: NAX500OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-9698DiVA: diva2:951987
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
Mäklarekonom
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2016-08-16 Created: 2016-08-11 Last updated: 2016-08-16Bibliographically approved

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