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The impact of aging on regional employment: Linking spatial econometrics and population projections for a scenario analysis of future labor market outcomes in the Nordic region
Department of Border Region Studies, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark .
Nordea, Finland.
Department of Border Region Studies, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark, RWI and RCEA .
University West, Department of Social and Behavioural Studies, Division of Social Pedagogy and Sociology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9146-9984
2014 (English)In: The Economics and Business Letters, ISSN 2254-4380, Vol. 3, no 4, 232-246 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ageing is a key challenge for many countries. The purpose of this paper is to simulate how ageing affects future regional labour market outcomes. We develop a simulation procedure based on data for 71 Nordic regions in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The procedure combines spatial econometrics and population projections for scenario analyses of future employment patterns up to 2021. Compared to a "benchmark scenario" based on projections of the working age population, we find that predicted regional labour market outcomes tell a much richer story if a combination of estimation results and population projections is used. To this end, our results can be helpful for economic policymaking, which is constantly in need of accurate regional labor market forecasts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 3, no 4, 232-246 p.
Keyword [en]
Regional employment, ageing, spatial econometrics, scenario analysis
National Category
Social Work
Research subject
SOCIAL SCIENCE, Social work
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-7139OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-7139DiVA: diva2:770759
Available from: 2014-12-11 Created: 2014-12-11 Last updated: 2015-03-17Bibliographically approved

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