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Government Debt and Economic Growth: An empirical comparison between three levels of debt Sweden, the United States and Japan
University West, Department of Economics and IT, Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics.
University West, Department of Economics and IT, Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics.
2014 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Statsskulder & tillväxt : En empirisk jämförelse mellan tre skuldnivåer  Sverige, USA och Japan (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

This study examines the long-run effect of government debt on economic growth. The analysis, covering the growth for Sweden, the United States and Japan, is based on a cointegrated material consisting of just over ten control variables. The material stretches over a span of five decades, beginning in the year of 1963. Independent variables in this study is solely of economic kind. The empirical results from the multiple regression analysis of each country respectively indicates that there is no linear relationship between government debt and economic growth. Furthermore, the analysis presents a strong effect of each country's primary balance deficit and surplus on economic growth. The material on which this study is based suffers from endogeneity where first and foremost a loop of causality is the root of the problem. The perception of the existence of a loop is enhanced in the case of Japan where a test for causality suggests a similar probability that the government debt is causing economic growth as the opposite. A corresponding test for Sweden and the U.S. indicates a causing effect of economic growth on government debt

Abstract [sv]

Denna studie undersöker statsskuldens långsiktiga effekt på ekonomisk tillväxt. Analysen som görs på Sverige, USA och Japan baseras på ett kointegrerat datamaterial innehållande drygt tio kontrollvariabler och sträcker sig över fem decennier, med början år 1963. Förklarande variabler i analysen utgörs av enbart ekonomiska aspekter. De empiriska resultateten av respektive lands multipla regressionsanalys pekar på att något linjärt samband mellan statsskuld och tillväxt inte existerar. Vidare visar analyserna att tillväxten i samtliga länder påverkas starkt av primärbalansens under- respektive överskott. Materialet på vilket undersökningarna baseras lider av endogenitet där främst en loop av kausalitet ligger som grund till problemet. Uppfattningen angående loopens existens förstärks i Japans fall där ett kausalitetstest föreslår en liknande sannolikhet för att statsskuld orsakar tillväxt som det motsatta. Motsvarande test för Sverige och USA indikerar att tillväxten orsakar statsskulden

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 35 p.
Keyword [en]
Government debt, economic growth, Sweden, United States, Japan, time series analysis, multiple regression.
Keyword [sv]
Statsskuld, ekonomisk tillväxt, Sverige, USA, Japan, tidsserieanalys, multipel regression.
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-6814Local ID: NAX500OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-6814DiVA: diva2:754891
Subject / course
Political science
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2014-10-13 Created: 2014-10-13 Last updated: 2014-10-13Bibliographically approved

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