Over the past decade, the Moderate Party of Sweden has undergone a significant transformation in its immigration policies, shifting from a historically liberal stance towards advocating more restrictive measures. Employing a longitudinal case study design and qualitative content analysis, this research investigates the underlying factors driving this notable policy shift. By scrutinizing party records, official statements, newspapers interviews, manifestos, and parliamentary discussions from 2012 to 2022, the study aims to unravel the complexities of the Moderate Party's evolving stance on immigration.

Beginning with a contextualization of the party's historical position on immigration, the research delves into the driving forces behind its transition towards more restrictive measures. Leadership changes, electoral dynamics, and external events such as the European refugee crisis are examined to comprehensively analyze the party's policy trajectory. Under the leadership of Fredrik Reinfeldt, the party embraced a narrative of openness and generosity towards asylum seekers. However, the onset of the 2015 migration crisis marked a pivotal turning point, prompting a reassessment of immigration policies. Findings reveal a nuanced interplay of factors contributing to the Moderate Party's evolving stance on immigration. The study identifies a strategic recalibration of the party's position to align more closely with prevailing public opinion and electoral dynamics. This recalibration, while addressing integration challenges and societal costs associated with increased immigration, underscores the party's commitment to maintaining electoral viability amidst complex societal realities.