Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Effects of exchange rate changes on the Zambi's trade balance
University West, School of Business, Economics and IT, Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics.
2020 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we examined the effects of real effective exchange rate (REER) changes on the Zambia´s trade balance, and whether the Marshal-Lerner condition (M-Lerner condition) and the Jcurve effect are satisfied in Zambia following the depreciation of the Zambian Kwacha (ZMK) against the U.S. dollar. Using annual time series data from 1990 through to 2019, the Johansen cointegration test results show that there is a long run relationship between the trade balance, the real effective exchange rate, the Zambia's GDP growth, the world´s GDP growth, and the Zambia´s terms of trade. A standard trade balance model was employed to estimate the long run and short run relationships between the trade balance and the variables in the trade balance model. The results from the trade balance show that the depreciation of the ZMK against the U.S. dollar improves the trade balance in the long run though the results could not validate the M-L condition since the coefficient value of REER was found to be far much less than unity (1). The results further uncover that the world´s GDP growth and the terms of trade both have a significant positive effect on the trade balance in the long run. The Zambia´s GDP growth was found to be statistically insignificant. In the short run, the results from the trade balance model show that the effects of the depreciation of the ZMK against the U.S. dollar on the trade balance were statistically insignificant, thus not consistent with the J-curve effect. The results from the Error Correction Model (ECM) on the other hand show that about 6.3% of the disequilibrium in the Zambia´s trade balance model is corrected every after one year.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. , p. 54
Keywords [en]
Zambia´s trade balance, real effective exchange rate, M-L condition, J- curve effect
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-15555Local ID: EXC513OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-15555DiVA, id: diva2:1455286
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
International Programme in Politics and Economics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2020-07-23 Created: 2020-07-23 Last updated: 2020-08-24Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1253 kB)1892 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1253 kBChecksum SHA-512
94bc1630d783c8b7e22b6026d3920b98d6d12a4cd1cee110a216e059a4af0a75152ed1127e1fe0fde9a2c15638f0e02cacdc2ab05102a59693e5560fe37a5f32
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics
Economics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 1896 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 508 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf