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Long-Run Drivers and Short-Term Dynamics of the Swedish Real House Prices
Högskolan Väst, Institutionen för ekonomi och it, Avd för juridik, ekonomi, statistik och politik.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-5176-9253
2016 (Engelska)Ingår i: Abstract of Economic, Finance and Management Outlook: 7th International Conference on Economics,Finance and Management Outlooks, 15-16 October, 2016, Hotel Grand Flora Dubai, UAE, 2016, Vol. 7, artikel-id 307/16/7 th ICEFMOKonferensbidrag, Muntlig presentation med publicerat abstract (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

This paper uses cointegration and vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the long-run drivers and short-term dynamics of the real house prices in Sweden forthe period 1986Q to 1995Q4. Specifically, we examine the extent to which real houseprices are determined by affordability, demographic, and asset price factors. The empirical results indicate house prices to increase in the long-run by 0.8% in response to a 1% increase in household's real disposable income, while after tax mortgage interest rate and real effective exchange rate show average long-term effects of approximately - 1% and - 5.3%, respectively. Suggesting that fiscal policy aimed todampen real house appreciation needs to adress the issue of tax deductibility onmortgage rate. In addition, our results indicate that the growth of real house prices is affected by the growth of mortgage credit, after tax mortgage interest rate and disposable income in the short run, and among which the real effective exchange rateis the most significant determinant behind Swedish real house appreciation.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2016. Vol. 7, artikel-id 307/16/7 th ICEFMO
Nyckelord [en]
Cointegration, Vector autoregressive, Affordability
Nationell ämneskategori
Nationalekonomi
Forskningsämne
SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP, Nationalekonomi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-10554DOI: 10.18488/journal.1003/2016.7/1003.7OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-10554DiVA, id: diva2:1064534
Konferens
th International Conference on Economics,Finance and Management Outlooks, 15-16 October, 2016, Hotel Grand Flora Dubai, UAE
Tillgänglig från: 2017-01-12 Skapad: 2017-01-12 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-01-12Bibliografiskt granskad

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