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What causes household debt to increase in Sweden?: a quantitative study of factors influencing indebtedness of Swedish households
University West, Department of Economics and IT, Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics.
University West, Department of Economics and IT, Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics.
2016 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The level of indebtedness of Swedish households seems to be an upwards going spiral which has no end to it. Warnings are frequently announced from governmental institutions as other sources and the risk households undertake can cause damage not only to the individual household but to the whole economy. If housing prices begin to decrease during a recession, i.e. a housing bubble would start to deflate, it could take a long time for the economy to stabilize. The growing household debt ratio might provide even more fuel to the potential fire. What this thesis is aiming to do is to give better understanding of how Swedish households' indebtedness is composed, or more precisely what might cause it to increase in the way it does. Especially factors beside the disposable income is in focus since the debt to income ratio has risen substantially over the past few decades. An empirical, quantitative analysis is carried out using an OLS multiple regression model and an Error Correction model. Economic theory and insights from previous studies are used as a justification to the variables in the model. The analysis points at development of new properties, increasing housing prices, inflation and rising consumption as being possible explanatory factors in the estimated model. The time series analysis is made using quarterly data with observations of the years 1996 – 2015.

Abstract [sv]

De svenska hushållens skuldsättning verkar vara en uppåtgående spiral utan slut. Från såväl politiskt håll som från andra källor hörs varningar för vilka risker detta skuldsättningsbeteende medför. En alltför hög skuldsättning kan orsaka problem inte bara för det individuella hushållet, utan för hela ekonomin. En lågkonjunktur som sammanfaller med minskande bostadspriser, i form av en läckande bostadsbubbla, har visat sig ta lång tid att återuppnå stabilitet efter. Den ökande skuldkvot som hushållens lånebeteende bidragit till kan elda på dessa problem ytterligare. Syftet med denna uppsats är att fördjupa förståelsen för hur svenska hushållens skulder är sammansatta, eller mer precist vad det är som orsakar att ökningen ser ut som den gör. Speciellt faktorer förutom disponibel inkomst är i fokus eftersom skuldkvoten i Sverige har ökat markant de senaste decennierna. En empirisk, kvantitativ analys utförs genom en OLS multipel regressionsmodell samt en Error correctionmodell. Ekonomisk teori och kunskaper från tidigare forskning ligger till grund för valet av variabler som använts i modellen. Analysen pekar på att produktion av nya fastigheter, stigande utveckling av fastighetspriser, inflation och ökande konsumtion kan vara möjliga förklarande variabler i den uppskattade modellen. Tidsserieanalysen bygger på kvartalsdata med observationer från 1996-2015.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , p. 30
Keywords [en]
household debt, life-cycle hypothesis, cointegration, Error correction model, Sweden
Keywords [sv]
hushållens skulder, livscykelhypotesen, kointegration, Error correctionsmodell, Sverige
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-9695Local ID: NAX500OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-9695DiVA, id: diva2:951971
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
Mäklarekonom
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2016-08-17 Created: 2016-08-11 Last updated: 2016-08-17Bibliographically approved

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