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Test of investment strategies using an Economic Sentiment Indicator
University West, School of Business, Economics and IT, Divison of Law, Economics, Statistics and Politics.
2020 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The purpose of the thesis is to use historical data from the period 2000 to 2019 to test whether an Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), which is a measurement of current and forecasting economic activities in the economy, can be used in investment purposes. The assets are embodied by the OMXS30 index representing shares and OMRX-TBond index representing bonds. In Sweden one reliable ESI is the Economic Tendency Survey (ETS) which is produced by the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) every month. In this thesis the active asset allocation changes in the portfolios determined by the ESI will be compared with a "buy and hold" portfolio. The portfolios will be compared by return, Sharpe ratio, beta values and an efficient frontier graph. The regressions to test the correlation between ETS and OMXS30 shows a significant relation, which is a requirement for using this method as signals in the construction of portfolios. The test of the OMXS30- and OMRX-T index shows a negative correlation which makes them good to combine. All three portfolios show a higher return and Sharp ratio than the OMXS30. One of the ETS portfolios showed the highest return and a high Sharp ratio. The "buy and hold" portfolio showed a higher Sharp ratio but the lowest return. According to the efficient frontier graph and the Sharp ratio the buy and hold portfolio is the preferred one.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. , p. 50
Keywords [en]
Sentiment | Economic Tendency Survey | “Buy and hold” | OMXS30 | OMRX-TBond
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-15572Local ID: EXF800OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hv-15572DiVA, id: diva2:1455320
Subject / course
Nationalekonomi
Educational program
Magister i finans
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2020-07-24 Created: 2020-07-23 Last updated: 2020-07-24Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf